§ — Catalyst Impact Score
The Catalyst Impact Score
CIS is Sigflow’s proprietary framework for assessing the potential significance and relative quality of a news catalyst. Every score is published with its rationale, so you can see why an event was scored the way it was.
A research assessment, published with its rationale. Never a buy or sell signal.
§01
It starts with four questions
Every catalyst is examined the same way before it is scored.
What happened, and which source supports the announcement?
What changed for the company, and how significant could that change be?
What was already expected or reflected in the market narrative?
What remains uncertain, and what additional evidence could change the interpretation?
§02
Five factors
The assessment considers the substance of an event and the information supporting it.
Materiality
How much the event could change for the company: revenue, earnings, capital needs, strategy, or another material part of the business.
Surprise relative to expectations
How different the announcement is from what was already expected or reflected in the market narrative.
Source credibility
Whether the information comes from the company, a regulator, a court, or a filing — or from an unconfirmed report.
Specificity
Whether the announcement contains terms, figures, and dates, or leaves important details missing.
Persistence
Whether the implications are likely to last beyond the day of the announcement.
§03 — Reading the score
A 0–10 scale, in four bands
Bands are a reading aid (proposed). The rationale matters more than the number: two events with the same score can mean very different things.
- Read the score with its rationale, publication time, and stated limitations.
- A higher score can describe a material adverse event as well as a positive development.
- CIS reflects information available at the time of analysis. New facts can change an assessment.
- Inclusion in an issue does not mean a security is suitable for trading, or that every important event was covered.
§04
A worked example
The same event that opens the sample issue, scored factor by factor.
Worked example · fictional
Halden Bio (fictional) — FDA approval decision
Approval converts a pipeline asset into a potential revenue line (materiality high). The decision date was public and a positive outcome was widely expected (surprise moderate). The company release is confirmed by the agency notice (credibility high) and names the indication and launch window (specificity high). Open uncertainties: label restrictions, launch timing, payer coverage.
§05 — What CIS is not
Limits
- Not a buy or sell signal, an entry price, or an exit instruction
- Not a forecast of price direction or a probability of profit
- Not a target return, and not a measure of suitability for any individual reader
- Not a measure of a security’s value
CIS methodology and limitations notice
The Catalyst Impact Score is a structured research assessment of the significance and relative quality of a news catalyst, considering materiality, surprise relative to expectations, source credibility, specificity, and persistence. It is not a buy or sell signal, a probability of profit, a forecast of price direction, or a measure of suitability. Scores reflect information available at the stated publication time and may change as new facts emerge. See the full description on the Catalyst Impact Score page.
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The catalyst checklist
The four questions Sigflow asks of every headline, on one page — plus the sample morning issue.
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